The Breakdown

One would be safe to say the San Diego Chargers are heading to Foxboro on their last leg. Philip Rivers is questionable with a hurt knee and LaDainian Tomlinson may not be one hundred percent due to an injury of the same sort. Toss into the mix staggering star tight end Antonio Gates (big toe), and the forecast for the Chargers is looking colder than the Foxboro wind-chill.

Much like their support was quieter than the RCA Dome when Commander Peyton Manning and his offense were at work. We’ve seen this situation before, and San Diego seems to be executing too soundly to hear the skeptics.

After the New England Patriots manhandled the Chargers in the season’s second week, few would have anticipated a rematch. After ten weeks when San Diego sat at .500 and New England had just knocked off their toughest opponents, the Colts, one would have been a madman to assume a playoff meeting. After a Saturday night win divisional round win for the Patriots, when the nation geared up for a Brady-Manning showdown, one could not be blamed for overlooking the seemingly flawed Chargers.

It all doesn’t seem so improbable now.

San Diego’s approach on both sides of the football must be aggressive. On fourth and short yardage in New England territory, they should forego field goals and attempt to keep drives alive, settling for nothing short of touchdowns.

New England will likely make Tomlinson its primary concern, so the Chargers’ ability to post points will rest upon their air attack. The quarterback, whether it is Rivers or Billy Volek, cannot afford a single mistake. As long as San Diego keeps a zero in their own turnover column, they will ride alongside the Patriots on the scoreboard. An effective approach would be to soften the Patriot secondary with many short attempts early on, then follow with shots downfield. Asante Samuel looked slow against the Jaguars. He was unable to keep up with Ernest Wilford on a crossing route in the end zone, and various times throughout the night, David Garrard was able to fit passes over linebackers and underneath Samuel’s large cushion.

Pressuring Brady is clearly necessary for success. Few teams have been able to fluster the MVP even momentarily this season. If a team like the Chargers were able to defeat New England, it would be safe to say Brady would not be jogging off with a spotless uniform.

As mentioned last week, the Chargers’ eye-popping turnover differential benefits them greatly when it seems they are overmatched. Their win in Indianapolis can be greatly accredited to good fortune with turnovers. With the Colts deep in the red zone, Manning’s pass was tipped and picked. A reception by the usually sure-handed Marvin Harrison in San Diego territory was fumbled and recovered by the Chargers. The third turnover resulted from a misread by Manning-possibly the most bizarre of them all. While San Diego can not bank on a couple gifts from Brady and company, they can certainly use their aggressive defensive attitude to their advantage-popping balls loose or tipping them in the air.

The Chargers were able to disrupt the Colts’ running game, allowing only 43 yards to the potent Joseph Addai. While New England utilized Laurence Maroney more than ever last week, do not be surprised if he fades back into obscurity this week. Despite two picks, Manning was able to rack up over 400 yards against a mediocre Charger secondary, which ranked 14^th in the NFL.

A great separator in this game will be third down conversion rate. New England ranks behind just Indianapolis at 48 percent, while San Diego converts on 39 percent of their tries. It’s no secret that keeping Brady off the field is a good thing, so the Chargers would like to swap those numbers come Sunday.

Patriots 34, Chargers 14

The Breakdown

Winning a playoff game is certainly not a small feat, but Norv Turner and the San Diego Chargers have not yet validated the firing of Marty Schottenheimer.

This year’s Chargers shuffled through the first ten games of the season. Luckily, they remained atop their poor division; this may have spurred motivation to start winning on the road to the playoffs.

Schottenheimer’s 2006 product executed much better than the current version, and that team collapsed at the hands of the Patriots, a team inferior, statistically, to the 2007 Indianapolis Colts. Logical comparison would lead one to believe that San Diego will be strongly overwhelmed on Sunday.

Antonio Gates, one of San Diego’s two main offensive weapons, has missed all practice this week with a dislocated left big toe and remains questionable for the game. Gates accounted for 31% of San Diego’s receiving yards and 41% of their receiving touchdowns. Without Gates, offensive production must be generated by LaDainian Tomlinson, who rushed for 76 yards on 21 carries against the Colts in Week 10.

The formula for beating the Colts is to sustain drives and always walk away with points. As long as the Chargers are relying on the ground game, they’ll be hard-pressed to execute this method. The Colts’ 15th-ranked rush defense is simply average, yet they allowed only ten rushing touchdowns, placing them in the upper-third of the NFL in the category.

The Colts’ second-best secondary in football is sure to cause fits for Rivers, who will most often target Chris Chambers with Gates on the bench. Chambers averaged just 55 yards per game in ten games with San Diego. Indianapolis rushes six-plus players very infrequently-second least in the NFL. This allows them to drop two linebackers into coverage along with four defensive backs, which often takes away or minimizes the short passing game. Rivers was sacked only 24 times this season, and the Colts got to the quarterback just 28 times. The problems for Rivers will lie in forcing balls into coverage. He won’t have much of a choice if the running game dissolves, and it will result in at least two interceptions.

In 2007, the Chargers benefitted from a +9 turnover differential, the highest in football. This statistic could be misleading, however, because some luck is involved. But the turnover margin will certainly be the wild card. Salvaging any momentum will be helpful for a San Diego team which just doesn’t stack up- offensively, defensively, game planning, and play calling-against Indianapolis.

Colts 35, Chargers 17

The Breakdown

“We want the ball and we’re gonna score!”

The words barely escaped from the lips of Matt Hasselbeck when Al Harris was strutting into the end zone sending Lambeau Field into frenzy just over four years ago.

Hasselbeck hopes to deliver on his claim this Saturday, and if the Seattle Seahawks would like a shot at the NFC crown, they better hope he does.

Hasselbeck’s passer rating has fallen short of 70 in five of his eight playoff starts. In a 35-14 win over the Washington Redskins last week, Hasselbeck threw two picks to go along with just one touchdown and 229 yards. Not exactly the clutch performer, Hasselbeck would do better to check down to pick up yardage underneath rather than try to fit balls into coverage.

The Seahawks would not be wise in placing the game on Shaun Alexander’s shoulders. Coming off a subpar season in which he averaged 3.5 yards per carry, Alexander collected just 46 yards on 15 carries against Washington and averages 3.5 yards per carry in his playoff career. The Redskins allowed 3.7 yards per carry to rushers this season; Green Bay, 3.9. Do not anticipate a breakout day for the former league MVP.

To frustrate a Packer defense which has allowed less than 20 points in ten games this season, Seattle must blend the pass and rush attacks on each drive. Falling into streaks can cause them to become predictable and Hasselbeck will have trouble with the Packer secondary.

Ryan Grant has 5.1 yards per carry, the fifth-best average in the league. He has been terrific in legitimizing the Green Bay ground game. While in the red zone, do not be shocked to find Green Bay attempting to pound its way to the goal line. Seattle allowed 16 rushing touchdowns-fifth most in the NFL.

Seattle’s defense is the least aggressive in football in terms of sending six-plus rushers. At first glance, this seems to work into the hands of Brett Favre, as 43% of his plays come from the shotgun (third highest in football). The Seahawks, however, allowed only 15 touchdown passes, the least in the NFL. Seattle will have no problem giving Favre some time to read coverage, because they feel their secondary is tough enough to hold up. While Favre may not post five touchdowns, he will have enough time to make good decisions and avoid interceptions.

Unless the Seahawks can protect the football and keep the field position battle in order, they will find themselves clawing at a two touchdown lead in the second half.

Packers 27, Seahawks 21

The Breakdown

Of all the football facets the Jacksonville Jaguars will be sold short leading up to their showdown in New England, resilience will not be one of them.

With two and a half minutes remaining, needing a field goal to lead, David Garrard proved worthy of comparison to his upcoming counterpart.

The Jags had just blown the largest fourth quarter lead (18) in playoff history, and were in need of about 25-30 yards to get into Josh Scobee’s range. On the most critical play of his season, a fourth and two, Garrard dropped back to pass. The double threat turned out to be the deciding factor, as he scrambled deep into Pittsburgh territory.

A few subjects can be taken from this game and applied to this Saturday’s divisional matchup. For one, the Jaguars stay disciplined. They committed only six penalties, and were among the five least penalized teams in football, so don’t expect them to hurt themselves.

Jacksonville will need to construct a game plan that puts both the defensive line and the secondary of the Patriots on their heels. The Jags get a bit of a breather this week after defeating Pittsburgh’s ruthless defense, which ranked third in both pass and rush stoppage. New England ranked tenth against the run and sixth against the pass.

Jacksonville should be very concerned about their secondary’s second half performance against the Steelers. They managed to eat Ben Roethlisberger alive in the first half, intercepting three of his passes. But he tossed it around at will to mount a comeback. This can be contributed to the differential in Jacksonville’s pass rush. In the first half, Roethlisberger went down five times. The Jaguars only mustered one sack in the second half, and the best secondary is a solid pass rush.

The Patriots and Jaguars stack up second and third respectively in the NFL in time of possession. Naturally, something has to give. New England’s short passing game rivals Jacksonville’s ground game in regards to clock management. Expect the Jaguars to hold the time of possession edge throughout the early stages, followed by a gradual shift as the Patriots will have a halftime lead. Jacksonville will have to use the pass and the Patriots will end up winning the time of possession battle.

If the Jaguars want to stick around, they must force the Patriots to resort to using Laurence Maroney. They can achieve this by pressuring Tom Brady early on (duh). Trust me, I’m going somewhere with this. By getting to Brady at the start, Jacksonville forces New England to attempt to push forward with Maroney. Without loading the box and clearly trying to stuff the run, the Jags can use delayed blitzes as a disguise and discourage New England’s rush efforts. This will force the Patriots to a pass heavy approach, making them more predictable, which is one large step on the way to defeating them.

As long as their offense is rolling like normal (as normal as a record-destroying offense may be called), New England will not have to worry about allowing solid yardage to the Jags’ two-headed backfield beast. Jacksonville could run for 200 yards and they would still not be able to keep up with the quick-hit scoring ability of the Patriots.

Patriots 28, Jaguars 17

Flipping through ESPN Magazine last week, I came across a rather interesting statistical breakdown of each post season head coach, to numerically reveal their style. Aggressiveness index is what grabbed my eye. Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin ranks as the least aggressive coach in football. Also, when Tomlin has a lead in the fourth quarter, 80% of his plays have been rushes–the most in football. Let’s face it. Some guys like to play it safe rather than go for the throat and risk turnovers. But when you repress that killer instinct in football, it usually comes back to bite you. And the decisions made on third and fourth downs late in the game can either seal the door shut, or open it wide for the opponent.

Case in point:

Game Situation: PIT 29 (3 timeouts) , JAX 28 (2 timeouts)

PLAY: 1-10-PIT 22 (3:43) N.Davenport right guard to PIT 27 for 5 yards

ANALYSIS: Excellent call. Pound it and produce manageable second and third down attempts.

PLAY: 2-5-PIT 27 (3:02) N.Davenport left tackle to PIT 26 for -1 yards

ANALYSIS: Acceptable choice. Play action with a short, safe pass would have worked, but since Davenport ate up 5 yards on first down, letting him push forward again is understandable.

*JACKSONVILLE USES SECOND TIME OUT*

PLAY: 3-6-PIT 26 (2:56) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger left tackle to PIT 27 for 1 yard

ANALYSIS: First off, shotgun formation is a horrendous idea. If you’re going to run it, line up in I-Formation and drill it up the middle or off tackle. If you’re going to pass it, line up in I-Formation and take advantage of play action. Shotgun formation followed by a run not only DOESN’T fool the defense, but it greatly diminishes the chances of a first down. On top of all this, Tomlin let Roethlisberger run it. If you haven’t been paying attention, he is the quarterback. Approaching this crucial third down, Tomlin had two main options:

A) Run the ball, which would likely result in Jacksonville using their last timeout and receiving the ball close to Pittsburgh territory with about 2:45 remaining, or, B) Pass the ball, which would either result in a first down allowing the Steelers to kill the clock for the win, or an incomplete pass giving the Jaguars the football close to Pittsburgh territory with about 2:45 remaining and one timeout.

The main difference between A and B is Jacksonville’s one remaining timeout. In the worst-case scenarios of each situation (excluding interception or fumble), Jacksonville would start their drive with the same amount of time remaining around the same part of the field. So if the Jags have about 2:45 to drive about 30-50 yards, how valuable is that last timeout? Tomlin’s lack of aggression in the situation disallowed the Steelers a legitimate opportunity to slam the door and advance to the next round.

The game cannot be considered thrown away by Tomlin, however, because that would discredit the Jaguars and their perseverance. With their final stand against Pittsburgh, the Jacksonville defense proved that they belong in the playoffs, and Jack Del Rio used his timeouts wisely.

In 2005, the Pittsburgh Steelers lost to the Indianapolis Colts in the twelfth week. Peyton Manning threw for two touchdowns, Marvin Harrison caught one and contributed 128 yards, and Edgerrin James pounded away for 124 yards in a 19-point Indianapolis victory.

The Steelers clawed their way into the playoffs that year, where they met the Colts again in the divisional round. In the rematch, James managed only 56 yards, the Colts did not have a receiver over 100 yards, and Manning threw just one touchdown against a stingy Steeler defense. Pittsburgh toppled the Colts, 21-18.

After the regular season matchup, Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau was able to make adjustments to cut down the Indy ground attack. By minimizing the effectiveness of James, the play action, which Manning usually takes extreme advantage of, was thereby ineffectual.

The adjustments for Pittsburgh will be even easier in the case of the Jacksonville Jaguars, because the Jags do not have a authoritative passing game. The Steelers can focus strongly on one goal: Stop Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. While still a mammoth task, LeBeau will formulate an effective game plan much like he did against the Colts in ’05. The strategy will most likely consist of stuffing the box with 7 men, and allowing the third best secondary in football to keep the Jags’ receivers in check.

With Pittsburgh gearing up for the run, expect David Garrard to use plenty of play action. He could cause the Steelers considerable problems with his mobility, escaping the rush when necessary.

On offense, the Steelers are facing a giant obstacle. Sans Willy Parker, the offensive attack will be focused mainly on Ben Roethlisberger, who is usually most effective when he makes fewer than 30 attempts. Roethlisberger lost five games as a starter this season, four of which he made over 30 attempts.

Jacksonville sacked Roethlisberger five times in their Week 15 matchup. Expect similar or even higher numbers tonight, as the Jags can zero in on defending the pass. Najeh Davenport will not reach the 70-yard mark, and that will translate to Big Ben making a few mistakes.

While a runner for each team gained 100 yards in the first game, the defenses will be amped to stop it. The winner of this game will be the team who can pass to keep drives alive, and not make any errors.

Jaguars 27, Steelers 24

The San Diego Chargers have not lost since the season’s eleventh week, and are 7-1 at home.

The Bolts gave a sloppy showing in Nashville in Week 14. Phillip Rivers made up for two first half picks with a touchdown pass late that sent the game into overtime.

If Vince Young plays, he won’t be much of a factor in the ground game, thanks to San Diego’s quick linebackers and Young’s sore right quad.

Losing Bo Scaife and Roydell Williams will basically deplete the Tennessee air attack, shifting the load to LenDale White. White piled up 113 yards in the teams’ first meeting, but it took him 30 carries. Expect similar numbers.

An average run game paired with a minimal pass game will not get it done, as the San Diego offense appears to be back to its 2006 form. During their six-game win streak, they averaged 30 points a game.

The only problem the Chargers will face is the pass rush of Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth, who combined to take down Rivers four times. If Rivers can throw it away to avoid sacks, or at least tuck it in as he goes down to avoid fumbles, it will not be a factor.

San Diego will jump ahead early and rack up first downs with LaDainian Tomlinson. Tennessee won’t sniff a lead. Chargers cruise.

Chargers 34, Titans 13

Feeding off emotion in football can be dangerous. An unstable team can get out of hand when they are trailing, and the penalty flags begin to rain down. If the Washington Redskins want to have a chance in this game, they must either grab an early lead or control themselves.

Neither team has an above average pass defense, and that will benefit the Seahawks. Matt Hasselbeck and Todd Collins are both accurate throwers, but Collins lacks the strength that Hasselbeck possesses.

If Shaun Alexander can produce half as well as he used to, Seattle will be in business, because the play action will work like magic.

Expect Seattle’s passing game to run on all three levels of the field: short, middle, and deep. Plenty of completions on cutbacks and short slants, paired with Alexander’s ability to find holes, will lead to time of possession domination for the Seahawks.

Seahawks 24, Redskins 10

The Two Minute Drill is a collection of sports columns, most often regarding the National Football League and Major League Baseball. I am a high school senior with an intense passion for communicating opinions on sports topics. The goal of the following material is to constantly progress toward professional sports writing. To achieve this, I will assess my own work, as well as incorporate the opinions of any readers who care to comment.