New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers

The Breakdown

One would be safe to say the San Diego Chargers are heading to Foxboro on their last leg. Philip Rivers is questionable with a hurt knee and LaDainian Tomlinson may not be one hundred percent due to an injury of the same sort. Toss into the mix staggering star tight end Antonio Gates (big toe), and the forecast for the Chargers is looking colder than the Foxboro wind-chill.

Much like their support was quieter than the RCA Dome when Commander Peyton Manning and his offense were at work. We’ve seen this situation before, and San Diego seems to be executing too soundly to hear the skeptics.

After the New England Patriots manhandled the Chargers in the season’s second week, few would have anticipated a rematch. After ten weeks when San Diego sat at .500 and New England had just knocked off their toughest opponents, the Colts, one would have been a madman to assume a playoff meeting. After a Saturday night win divisional round win for the Patriots, when the nation geared up for a Brady-Manning showdown, one could not be blamed for overlooking the seemingly flawed Chargers.

It all doesn’t seem so improbable now.

San Diego’s approach on both sides of the football must be aggressive. On fourth and short yardage in New England territory, they should forego field goals and attempt to keep drives alive, settling for nothing short of touchdowns.

New England will likely make Tomlinson its primary concern, so the Chargers’ ability to post points will rest upon their air attack. The quarterback, whether it is Rivers or Billy Volek, cannot afford a single mistake. As long as San Diego keeps a zero in their own turnover column, they will ride alongside the Patriots on the scoreboard. An effective approach would be to soften the Patriot secondary with many short attempts early on, then follow with shots downfield. Asante Samuel looked slow against the Jaguars. He was unable to keep up with Ernest Wilford on a crossing route in the end zone, and various times throughout the night, David Garrard was able to fit passes over linebackers and underneath Samuel’s large cushion.

Pressuring Brady is clearly necessary for success. Few teams have been able to fluster the MVP even momentarily this season. If a team like the Chargers were able to defeat New England, it would be safe to say Brady would not be jogging off with a spotless uniform.

As mentioned last week, the Chargers’ eye-popping turnover differential benefits them greatly when it seems they are overmatched. Their win in Indianapolis can be greatly accredited to good fortune with turnovers. With the Colts deep in the red zone, Manning’s pass was tipped and picked. A reception by the usually sure-handed Marvin Harrison in San Diego territory was fumbled and recovered by the Chargers. The third turnover resulted from a misread by Manning-possibly the most bizarre of them all. While San Diego can not bank on a couple gifts from Brady and company, they can certainly use their aggressive defensive attitude to their advantage-popping balls loose or tipping them in the air.

The Chargers were able to disrupt the Colts’ running game, allowing only 43 yards to the potent Joseph Addai. While New England utilized Laurence Maroney more than ever last week, do not be surprised if he fades back into obscurity this week. Despite two picks, Manning was able to rack up over 400 yards against a mediocre Charger secondary, which ranked 14^th in the NFL.

A great separator in this game will be third down conversion rate. New England ranks behind just Indianapolis at 48 percent, while San Diego converts on 39 percent of their tries. It’s no secret that keeping Brady off the field is a good thing, so the Chargers would like to swap those numbers come Sunday.

Patriots 34, Chargers 14