Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Breakdown

In 2005, the Pittsburgh Steelers lost to the Indianapolis Colts in the twelfth week. Peyton Manning threw for two touchdowns, Marvin Harrison caught one and contributed 128 yards, and Edgerrin James pounded away for 124 yards in a 19-point Indianapolis victory.

The Steelers clawed their way into the playoffs that year, where they met the Colts again in the divisional round. In the rematch, James managed only 56 yards, the Colts did not have a receiver over 100 yards, and Manning threw just one touchdown against a stingy Steeler defense. Pittsburgh toppled the Colts, 21-18.

After the regular season matchup, Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau was able to make adjustments to cut down the Indy ground attack. By minimizing the effectiveness of James, the play action, which Manning usually takes extreme advantage of, was thereby ineffectual.

The adjustments for Pittsburgh will be even easier in the case of the Jacksonville Jaguars, because the Jags do not have a authoritative passing game. The Steelers can focus strongly on one goal: Stop Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. While still a mammoth task, LeBeau will formulate an effective game plan much like he did against the Colts in ‘05. The strategy will most likely consist of stuffing the box with 7 men, and allowing the third best secondary in football to keep the Jags’ receivers in check.

With Pittsburgh gearing up for the run, expect David Garrard to use plenty of play action. He could cause the Steelers considerable problems with his mobility, escaping the rush when necessary.

On offense, the Steelers are facing a giant obstacle. Sans Willy Parker, the offensive attack will be focused mainly on Ben Roethlisberger, who is usually most effective when he makes fewer than 30 attempts. Roethlisberger lost five games as a starter this season, four of which he made over 30 attempts.

Jacksonville sacked Roethlisberger five times in their Week 15 matchup. Expect similar or even higher numbers tonight, as the Jags can zero in on defending the pass. Najeh Davenport will not reach the 70-yard mark, and that will translate to Big Ben making a few mistakes.

While a runner for each team gained 100 yards in the first game, the defenses will be amped to stop it. The winner of this game will be the team who can pass to keep drives alive, and not make any errors.

Jaguars 27, Steelers 24